Democracy is the child of mass warfare; prolonged peace leads to oligarchy.
(Thoughts originally prompted by an article on Crooked Timber today, 30/01/2025, about the death of NATO and the post-WWII order generally).
The American aim after the fall of the Soviet Union was to force ruling classes the world over to cooperate,using American rules, on American terms and under American leadership. In return, these ruling classes could make money and keep it - the Americans would hold back from shaking them down. of course, they would do it a bit, but not too much - other people could make and keep money even in the U.S. The inevitable and perhaps desired consequence of this was a general shift towards oligarchy.
Why so? Because the official public sphere was, to bourgeois eyes, contaminated by popular involvement. As much as possible was therefore removed from it, and hidden behind a veil of technical jargon or outright secrecy. Here elites could gut democracy, at an increasing rate to a point where its name becomes an object of derision.
It turns out though that the rulers of China and Russia never accepted the American deal, and want to end it. In the case of China this was always blindingly obvious except apparently to American policy makers in the 1990s and early 20-noughties. In the case of Russia, a much weaker country, I find it more surprising, possibly because I know nothing about Russia. Thinking about the self-deceptions the UK spins to persuade itself it still sits at the top table, maybe I should not be surprised. Russia no more than Britain had a purging 1945. For whatever reason both countries challenge the US, with the challenge offered by China apparently now worrying American elites. It is possible therefore that these will once more feel the need to woo their common people and maybe this will be enough to halt, at least for a while, the slide to oligarchy.
